Spain’s ‘second summer’ to meet brutal end as temperatures to plummet almost overnight
SPAIN’S September heatwave is about to come to an abrupt and brutal end, with temperatures forecast to collapse by as much as 20C in some areas over the weekend.
After days of ‘second summer’ conditions more typical of July than mid-September, meteorologists are warning that autumn will arrive with full force across the Iberian Peninsula this weekend and into next week.
According to Meteored’s Samuel Biener, both the European and American weather models are aligned in predicting a ‘radical change’ beginning on Friday, when the polar jet stream is set to dip southwards, channelling a mass of cold Arctic air directly towards Spain.
This will bring daytime highs crashing down from levels 3–6C above the seasonal average to values well below normal for late September.
In some inland regions the swing could exceed 15C, while mountainous areas may see a drop closer to 20C compared with the scorching start of the week.
The ECMWF anomaly charts (see images) show how the Iberian Peninsula, which is currently glowing red with heat well above average, will flip to near or below-average values by the following week as the cold air takes hold.
The dramatic shift will not only end the lingering heat but also trigger the first signs of winter in high-altitude areas.
Snowfalls are likely on the peaks of the Cantabrian Mountains and the Pyrenees, with the freezing level forecast to dip towards 1,500 metres in the north.
Forecasts suggest the cooling will be sharpest inland but still noticeable on the coasts.
In Sevilla, where highs this week will nudge 38C, values could tumble to around 30C by early next week with nights dipping into the mid-teens.
Along the Costa Blanca and Valencia, daytime maxima near 30–32C will slide back to 25–27C, while overnight lows fall from the low 20s to the mid-teens.
Even the Costa del Sol, which has held around 28–30C during the ‘second summer,’ is expected to slip into the mid-20s, and in Barcelona the heat of 29–30C will give way to cooler highs in the mid-20s and much fresher nights of 14–16C.
READ MORE: This summer in Spain was the hottest on record at 2.1C above the average
Biener notes that Spain may find itself under the ‘descending branch’ of the polar jet, with a likely blocking pattern establishing over the Atlantic.
This would funnel Arctic air southwards while leaving western Europe exposed to a deep trough and possible surface lows.
The result could be widespread unsettled weather:
Intense downpours and thunderstorms, particularly in the north and along the Mediterranean coast, between Saturday and Monday.
Potential flash floods, hailstorms and damaging winds; heavy rain accumulations in several regions if multiple fronts sweep through.
READ MORE: Spain set for ‘second summer’ this week: Here are the regions where the thermometer could top 36C
While exact impacts will depend on the evolution of low-pressure systems, forecasters are confident about one thing: the heatwave is finished.
“The summer is being thrown out without knocking,” one Meteored bulletin warned, adding that autumn will enter ‘abruptly’ with the possibility of locally severe weather.
The change comes after an extraordinary late-summer episode, with highs more typical of midsummer. Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha and parts of Castilla y Leon have recorded anomalies several degrees above average, and even the Balearic and Canary Islands have sweltered in unseasonable heat.
By early next week, however, the scene will be unrecognisable. Across much of the country daytime maximums will struggle, nights will turn chilly, and the season of sudden storms and early snows will have arrived.
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